Thursday, January 9, 2020

Saudi state oil tanker company suspending shipments through Hormuz - FT

What is the Strait of Hormuz?

http://www.tankeroperator.com/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=11319

The Financial Times reports that Saudi state oil tanker company is suspending shipments through Hormuz following Iranian missile strikes on US military bases in Iraq.
 
“I think a lot of people are waiting to see if there is any attacks or direct involvement of tankers,” said Richard Matthews, head of research at Gibson shipbrokers was reported as saying. “Beyond the obvious heightened risk, most people are in wait-and-see mode. We haven’t seen a significant shift in tanker rates or insurance rates yet, but it is still very much early days.”

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Exclusive: U.S. mulls sanctions against Venezuelan lawmakers over bid to seize congress - sources

Juan Guaidó

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-sanctions-exclusiv/exclusive-us-mulls-sanctions-against-venezuelan-lawmakers-over-bid-to-seize-congress-sources-idUSKBN1Z62HO

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration is considering sanctions against some of the Venezuelan lawmakers who took part in a bid supported by President Nicolas Maduro to wrest control of the country’s congress from U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, according to two people familiar with the matter. 

Deliberations over the possible sanctions targets, including Maduro-backed lawmaker Luis Parra and more than a dozen others, are in the early stages, and a final decision is not imminent, the sources told Reuters on Tuesday. 

Venezuelan troops blocked Guaido from entering parliament on Sunday for what was expected to be his re-election as head of congress, allowing Maduro’s socialist party to hand the post to Parra. Later in the day, opposition legislators quickly re-elected Guaido - recognized by dozens of nations as Venezuela’s rightful interim leader - at the offices of a pro-opposition newspaper. 

“We go after those who undermine the constitution,” said one of the sources, a high-ranking U.S. government official who declined to be named because details of the deliberations have not been made public. “This is no different.” 

The White House declined comment. The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The measures against the lawmakers could start with bans on their travel to the United States, a restriction that Washington has already slapped on dozens of Maduro allies, and might later involve financial sanctions against them, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Special envoy Elliott Abrams said the United States was looking at additional sanctions to step up pressure on the Venezuelan government on Monday, but did not specify potential targets. 

Last January, Washington recognized Guaido as the OPEC nation’s legitimate interim president and began ratcheting up sanctions and diplomatic pressure in an effort to oust Maduro. 

A year later, Maduro remains in power, backed by the military as well as Russia, China and Cuba. A senior administration official told Reuters in October that Trump’s frustration over the lack of results had spurred aides to ready further actions. 

Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and Alexandra Alper; Editing by Peter Cooney, Leslie Adler and Lisa Shumaker

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Juan Guaido Reclaims Venezuela National Assembly After Parra’s Exit

Guaido Bursts In to Reclaim Venezuela's National Assembly

Juan Pablo Guanipa, vice president of the National Assembly, left, swears in Juan Guaido in Caracas on Jan. 7.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido on Tuesday reclaimed the National Assembly that he heads, pushing past armed guards two days after President Nicolas Maduro’s loyalists blocked him from attending his own re-election.

 Juan Guaido speaks with a megaphone to the crowd as he attempts to enter the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 7, 2020.
 Juan Guaido speaks with a megaphone to the crowd as he attempts to enter the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 7, 2020. Photographer: Carolina Cabral/Getty Images
  • After struggle with police, opposition made it into building
  • Pro-government faction tried to hold session without quorum 
Guaido and his allies burst through the legislative palace’s doors minutes after a pro-government group led by lawmaker Luis Parra, who had claimed the presidency of the body, scurried to a next-door building for refuge.


Guaido climbed to the dais and took the microphone as opposition lawmakers sang the national anthem, which include the words “Death to oppression.” Lawmakers then voted to recognize Guaido’s re-election as head of the National Assembly for 2020. They rejected Parra’s attempt to claim the role thanks to a Sunday vote taken amid chaos in the chamber as Guaido’s supporters were barred, preventing a quorum.

“It’s a great feat for us to be here today,” Guaido said Tuesday after reclaiming his place. “This is proof of what’s possible if we’re firmly united and organized.”

Electricity was cut off at one point, prompting lawmakers to read the attendance list with the help of mobile phone lights and without microphones. Outside, armed civilian groups known as colectivos cornered and forcibly removed a group of journalists and lawmakers, beating and stealing from some of those gathered.

“The president of the National Assembly is Luis Parra; whoever is with Guaido must leave now,” they shouted.
 
The attempted takeover of what was Venezuela’s last democratic institution has deepened the standoff between Maduro and Guaido, who last year was recognized as the nation’s legitimate leader by more than 50 countries. The government had yet to comment on Guaido’s return to the assembly Tuesday.

“The opposition comes out well, in the sense that it managed to enter its natural space and hold a session,” said Ricardo Sucre, a political analyst and professor at Venezuela’s Central University. “It sends an image of a cohesive, organized opposition, that could achieve a concrete effect.”

Venezuela, a formerly prosperous petrostate, has spiraled into misery after decades of misrule under Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. The failure of their socialist program has been exacerbated by a plunge in oil prices and U.S. sanctions. Crucial oil infrastructure is defunct, hyperinflation has ravaged the economy and food and medicine are scarce.

VENEZUELA

Venezuelan opposition lawmakers force their way into the National Assembly in Caracas.
Photographer: Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images
During Tuesday’s session, Guaido pledged to find a solution to Venezuela’s crisis “so we can live with dignity and prosperity” and said the next session would take place Jan. 14. On the way out of the legislative palace, Guaido and his deputies covered their eyes and mouths as they were met with tear gas.

At a news conference later in the day, he demanded that the regime explain why it deployed military personnel to blockade the assembly building and called for protests and rallies. He said the opposition would appoint ambassadors to Bolivia, El Salvador and Uruguay.

Parra, whom the assembly is investigating in connection with a graft case, claims to have been voted in legitimately as the new national assembly head on Sunday. The U.S. is considering sanctioning lawmakers who supported his claim, according to a person familiar with the deliberations.

Guaido for his part, was confirmed Sunday by 100 lawmakers in an off-site vote after he was barred from entering the chamber.

Guaido Bursts In to Reclaim Venezuela's National Assembly
Supporters of Guaido confront members of the Bolivarian National Guard outside the National Assembly building in Caracas.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg
“The opposition lawmakers are putting on a little show,” socialist lawmaker and former labor minister Francisco Torrealba said Tuesday. “This confrontation within the right is embarrassing, they’re hitting each other instead of solving the crisis fueled by U.S. politics.”

— With assistance by Nicolle Yapur, and Nick Wadhams

Monday, January 6, 2020

Venezuela’s last democratic institution falls as Maduro attempts de facto takeover of National Assembly

Venezuela's National Assembly president Juan Guaido gestures before a crowd of opposition supporters Vargas, Venezuela, on January 13, 2019; Nicolas Maduro speaks from the balcony of Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2019.Venezuela's National Assembly president Juan Guaido gestures before a crowd of opposition supporters during an open meeting in Vargas, Venezuela, on January 13, 2019; Ariana Cubillos/AP


CARACAS, Venezuela — The government of President Nicolás Maduro attempted a de facto takeover of Venezuela's legislature on Sunday, swearing in its own candidate as head of the National Assembly in a move apparently orchestrated to rob international credibility from Juan Guaidó, who had led the body and has staked a rival claim as head of state.

The dramatic events marked a sharp escalation in Maduro’s gambit to end Guaidó’s quest to unseat him and sparked immediate condemnation by Washington, which has strongly backed the 36-year-old opposition leader. Opposition officials declared the move an effective “parliamentary coup” meant to consolidate Maduro’s near-dictatorial powers.

“Today, they dismantled the rule of law, assassinating the republic, with the complicity of a group of traitor lawmakers,” Guaidó told reporters outside the parliamentary building.

Later Sunday, Guaidó sought to counter the move by gathering opposition lawmakers at the headquarters of El Nacional, a local newspaper, to cast an official vote. In a 100-to-0 tally — enough to put him over the top in a full session of the 167-seat chamber — those present reelected Guaidó as head of the legislature. Twenty-eight of the 100 were votes from stand-ins of exiled lawmakers.

But Maduro, in an address to the nation, hailed what he called the National Assembly’s “new leadership.”

“A very corrupt person leaves the presidency of the National Assembly today, as a millionaire, a billionaire,” said Maduro, referring to Guaidó. He added, “to justify their defeat, they say that a security operation was launched” to stop them.

The attempt to replace Guaidó — who declared himself interim president a year ago and promised to oust Maduro for claiming reelection in a tainted 2018 vote — appeared to be a carefully organized plan many weeks in the making.

Opposition officials have warned since last month that Maduro’s government was handing out suitcases of cash to woo lawmakers. But they thought they had successfully countered the operation, and on Sunday, Guaidó began the day anticipating his reelection as head of the National Assembly, viewed internationally as the last democratic institution in the authoritarian South American state. Guaidó’s claim as the nation’s true president — recognized by nearly 60 countries, including the United States — has been based on his status as the assembly’s chief.

But security forces loyal to Maduro formed a cordon early Sunday around the assembly building in central Caracas, blocking some opposition lawmakers from entering. Lawmakers who back Maduro — including several allegedly involved in a government plot to buy votes — were allowed to pass. At one point, Guaidó sought to scale the spiked wrought-iron fence surrounding the assembly and force his way in, according to a video issued by the opposition.

At the same time, Luis Parra — a former opposition politician who was one of several lawmakers accused last month of accepting government bribes — announced his surprise candidacy against Guaidó via Twitter on Sunday morning. Hours later, his swearing-in was shown on state television.

Security forces loyal to the Maduro government stand guard outside the National Assembly on Sunday. (Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images)Security forces loyal to the Maduro government stand guard outside the National Assembly on Sunday. (Yuri Cortez/AFP/Getty Images)

Parra is thought to have had the support of at least 40 lawmakers from Maduro’s party and an unknown number of others who the opposition claims have been bribed. But there was no evidence that an actual vote had taken place. The opposition also insisted that there had been no legal quorum because Guaidó, the chamber’s leader, had not been present to validate the session.

Sedition within the opposition, however, appeared to run deeper than some had feared. For instance, Luis Stefanelli, an opposition lawmaker who fled the country after claiming to reject a government bribe, had appointed a “loyal” stand-in to vote in favor of Guaidó on Sunday. But he said in a tweet that his stand-in had “betrayed him” and had instead stood with the government’s pick, Parra.

The government’s action appeared designed to complicate Guaidó’s international recognition and provide some nations that might be considering pulling their support for him additional legal cover to do so.

But the move also creates new logistical and technical hurdles for an already beleaguered opposition, including how and where to continue meeting and passing legislation.

Guaidó’s strongest backers — particularly in Washington — disregarded Sunday’s maneuvers in the National Assembly as dictatorial theatrics. The move comes as the United States — which has slapped tough sanctions on Maduro’s government, including an oil embargo — is weighing more confrontational steps, such as a possible naval blockade of Venezuelan oil being shipped to Cuba, the Maduro government’s chief regional ally.

In a statement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated Guaidó on his “re-election” and condemned the “failed efforts” by Maduro to “negate the will of the democratically elected National Assembly.”

He charged Maduro’s government with seeking to “forcibly” deny access to Guaidó and other lawmakers after realizing its campaign of “bribery and intimidation” had failed to secure enough votes to oust him.

“Juan Guaido personifies the Venezuelan people’s struggle to reclaim the prosperity and democracy they once enjoyed,” Pompeo said in the statement. “No regime thugs, no jail cells, and no bribery or intimidation can subvert the will of the Venezuelan people.”
Few immediately saw Maduro as gaining international support from the move. A host of nations, including Brazil, Canada and Chile, quickly rejected Sunday’s attempt to install Parra. In a statement, the European Union said Sunday’s “serious irregularities” constituted “a new step in the deterioration of the Venezuelan crisis. As a consequence, the E.U. continues to recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate President of the National Assembly until the conditions for a proper voting session can be assured.”

The Maduro government has made attempts to declaw the National Assembly since the opposition won a sweeping majority in 2015. In 2016, the pro-Maduro Supreme Court officially stripped it of its legislative authority. A year later, the court announced it would dissolve the institution, a threat it never followed through on after the ruling generated internal controversy and street protests. In 2017, Maduro’s government created a “Constituent Assembly,” made up exclusively of its own backers, which sought to supplant the National Assembly’s authority.

But the opposition has managed to keep the institution at the center of its fight to oust Maduro, holding sessions weekly and using it as a legal backup to Guaidó’s claim to the presidency. It has given Guaidó constitutional legitimacy in the eyes of foreign powers, based on the fact that he and his supporters were elected by a majority in 2015 — the last time a vote here was seen as generally democratic.

The government’s bold move on Sunday comes at a dangerous time for the opposition. After a year in which many Venezuelans believe he overpromised how quickly Maduro could be forced from office, Guaidó has seen his popularity sharply slip. Attempts to turn the nation’s top military brass against Maduro have failed, and the opposition is reeling from accusations of turncoats and festering corruption within its own ranks.

Saudi Aramco has seen $200 billion of market value erased since its record-shattering IPO as Mideast tensions drag it lower

FILE PHOTO: A sign of Saudi Aramco's initial public offering (IPO) is seen during a news conference by the state oil company at the Plaza Conference Center in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia November 3, 2019. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo

Saudi Aramco's market value has tanked by $200 billion since its post-IPO peak, and the stock is falling faster in the wake of heightened tensions between the US and Iran.

The world's most highly valued company fell 1.7% Sunday and as much as 1.2% Monday. Aramco became the first company to hit a $2 trillion valuation on December 12, but its market cap now sits at roughly $1.8 trillion.

Aramco shares have since pared some losses through Monday, trading roughly 0.1% lower at 34.50 riyals ($9.20) per share. The two-day drop placed shares at their lowest point since the firm's December 11 initial public offering, and just 7% higher than its offering price of 32 riyals ($8.53). 

Global stocks continue to fall as the US's assassination of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani late Thursday inflamed tensions between the two nations. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, on Monday hit its highest price since 2013.

Aramco stock fell despite oil surging to $70 per barrel, suggesting higher oil prices were overshadowed by boosted risk in the Gulf region.

Some analysts have said Iran could target oil infrastructure and raise the commodity's cost to hit back at the US. Any such retaliation could resemble the attacks on Aramco facilities in September. The firm's oil production was cut in half after explosive-armed drones disabled several of its facilities. The US and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the strike, while Houthi rebels from Yemen claimed responsibility.

Aramco returned to its normal output levels in just one month and pushed forward with its IPO, but the attacks left many investors mulling the company's exposure to geopolitical risk.

Though the US airstrike pushed Aramco lower, the state-run company has several defenses to keep its shares from falling too far. Saudi Arabia government institutions sank $2.3 billion into the company's stock ahead of its record-breaking IPO, giving the kingdom a stronger hold on Aramco's stock price. 

Saudi Arabia has also marketed Aramco shares as a stable investment in the kingdom's future. The oil giant and its December IPO are key components in the government's plan to diversify away from oil. The kingdom could intervene to keep the stock price stable, Asha Mehta, Acadian Asset Management senior portfolio manager, told Bloomberg in December.

"There's broad awareness that the government is a large investor and that they're willing to step in during times of market volatility to protect prices," Mehta said.

Friday, January 3, 2020

Dow drops 200 points after US airstrike on Iran’s top military leader spikes oil

GP: IRAN-IRAQ-POLITICS-UNREST-US
Iranians tear up a US flag during a demonstration in Tehran on January 3, 2020 following the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US strike on his convoy at Baghdad international airport.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/dow-futures-after-us-air-strike-kills-iran-top-military-leader.html

Stocks fell sharply on Friday after the U.S. confirmed that an airstrike killed Iran’s top military commander, sending oil prices surging and hiking geopolitical concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 212 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 slid 0.8% along with the Nasdaq Composite. The Dow briefly dropped more than 360 points at the open.

U.S. crude oil futures shot up around 3.5% to $63.31 per barrel, raising concerns about an energy shock on the global economy. Airline stocks fell broadly on the threat of higher oil prices. United, American and Delta all dropped more than 2%.

“Global oil markets will be volatile for weeks to come,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note. “There’s a reason, finally, for caution in the stock market.”
“Eventually there will be an uneasy truce ... But that’s a long, long way off; this will get worse before it gets better,” he added.

Investors largely fled risk assets such as stocks in favor of gold and Treasurys and other traditional safe havens. Gold futures jumped 1.3% to $1,547.80 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to the price, dropped to around 1.83%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered to be the best fear gauge on Wall Street, traded about 2 points higher, or 18.4%, at 14.77.

Energy stocks were the lone winner on Friday. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) rose more than 1%. Concho Resources and Marathon Oil rose more than 2% each while Apache jumped traded more than 1.5% higher.

The U.S. announced late Thursday that it had killed Iran’s top commander, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, in Baghdad in an airstrike. Soleimani had been a key figure in Iranian politics, and his death has raised concerns over a potential retaliation from the Iranian forces.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned on Friday that Iran would retaliate against the U.S. for its actions.

“It’s a game-changer,” Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Wealth Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. “We now have vast, broader array of weapons systems that the president has at his disposal. We’ve been able to weaponize economic sanctions now where we can go after individuals … but now I think the ultimate sanction that the president is able to use is an airstrike.”

Pence added, however, that any market volatility “will be short-lived.”

Wall Street loaded up on safer assets on fears that an oil spike might spark a recession. That risk is also heightened by the fact that the global economy has been struggling amid a global manufacturing slowdown.

The market moves come after U.S. equities rose to all-time highs on Thursday on the back of a strong performance in the tech sector. However, the optimism entering the new year seems to be fading amid political tensions, including North Korea and the impeachment of President Donald Trump.