Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Will Nigeria's ailing leader return to power?

By Paul Armstrong, CNNFebruary 24, 2010 -- Updated 1341 GMT (2141 HKT)
President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last year.STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Unclear whether Umaru Musa Yar'Adua will resume duties
Yar'Adua has been treated for inflammation of tissue around the heart
His three month absence created a power vacuum in Nigeria
Nigeria is one of the world's leading oil producers
RELATED TOPICS
Nigeria
Umaru Yar'Adua
Saudi Arabia
(CNN) -- Nigeria's political landscape was shrouded in mystery Thursday as its ailing President, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, returned to the country after months abroad receiving medical treatment.

Earlier this month, Nigeria's House and Senate approved a resolution to install the country's vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, as head of state amid fears over Yar'Adua's future.

With uncertainty over whether Yar'Adua will attempt to return to power, CNN looks at the implications for this oil-rich country.

Why did President Yar'Adua leave Nigeria?

Yar'Adua went to Saudia Arabia in November to be treated for inflammation of tissue around the heart, a condition that was diagnosed after he complained of chest pain.

Yar'Adua, 58, said at the time he did not intend to resign while in Saudi Arabia, but no further news came from the president for almost two months until January 13, when he gave the BBC an interview from his hospital bed.

In a frail voice, he sought to assure his countrymen that he was getting better and intended to return soon to power.

What was the reaction in Nigeria?

Until Jonathan's appointment, Africa's most populous nation had been on the brink of a constitutional crisis that threatened to bring the country to a standstill at a time when it is facing a number of challenges, not least the insurgency in its oil rich Niger Delta region.

Some observers said Yar'Adua's absence created a power vacuum, while demonstrators took to the streets of the nation's capital, Abuja, to demand a constitutional order on his absence and evidence about his true state of health.

Nobel Prize winner for literature, Wole Soyinka, even accused the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) of taking advantage of the president's absence. "The issue is that certain elements within the ruling party love this hiatus, they love the headlessness of government because they can proceed to loot and create their own little empires while the president is away," he said.

Who is Yar'Adua and where is he now?

Abdullah Aminchi, Nigeria's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said the president's health had improved considerably and that he went back to Nigeria on Tuesday.

Agence France-Presse reported that two planes landed in succession -- one of them believed to be an air ambulance -- amid heavy security at the presidential wing of the international airport in Abuja.

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Formerly the governor of the remote northern Katsina State, Yar'Adua swept to power in 2007 promising to tackle corruption, endemic in the country, and the unrest in the Niger Delta.

Backed by predecessor Olusegun Obasanjo as the PDP's presidential candidate, his election marked the first time in Nigeria one democratically-elected leader had taken over from another.

Will he return to power?

Though Jonathan must cede power to Yar'Adua upon his return, if he's medically capable of performing his duties, a presidential adviser was quoted by Reuters.com as saying it was unlikely he would immediately resume office.

Has there been any reaction to the President's return?

According to Nigerian newspaper, NEXT, the country's senate made no reference to President Yar'Adua's health or return during its Wednesday session. But the newspaper added that the news of his arrival is causing "a lot of anxiety in Abuja especially among politicians, many of whom had prepared themselves for a post Yar'Adua era."

In an effort to retain her ailing husband's grip on power, NEXT claimed Turai Yar'Adua had been "surreptitiously orchestrating an elaborate power scheme and was, in effect, running the affairs of the country."

It said it had evidence that Yar'Adua and her "cabal" of loyalists had succeeded in warding off all efforts to fill the leadership vacuum and thereby frustrated constitutional processes.

Why does Nigeria matter?

With a population of almost 150 million people, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and accounts for 47 percent of West Africa's population, according to the World Bank. Its population is made up of about 200 ethnic groups, 500 indigenous languages, and two major religions -- Islam and Christianity.

With an economy dominated by oil, Nigeria is the 16th biggest producer of crude oil in the world, according to the CIA's World Factbook. In 2002 oil and gas exports accounted for more than 98 percent of export earnings and about 83 percent of federal government revenue, according to the U.S. State Department.

However production in its oil-rich Niger Delta region has been seriously disrupted by armed militant groups fighting for the redistribution of Nigeria's oil wealth.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), an umbrella organization for many of these groups, wants oil cash to be reinvested in the region instead of enriching those whom they consider corrupt politicians

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