Non-OPEC crude oil supply will rise by 2.4 million bpd next year, OPEC said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
The cartel added that the rise would be driven by the addition of new pipeline capacity in North America, most likely meaning the United States as Canada’s pipeline woes continue and Mexico struggles to reverse declining production. In fact, OPEC mentioned the natural decline of production in Mexico would offset the effect of rising non-OPEC supply somewhat.
It’s not just the U.S. that will expand production, however. New projects in Norway, Brazil and Australia will also contribute to the increase in non-OPEC supply.
However, OPEC has revised downwards its non-OPEC supply growth projections for this year: it sees growth at 2.05 million bpd, down by 95,000 bpd from its previous monthly forecast. That would bring the total non-OPEC supply to a daily average of 64.43 million bpd.
In demand, OPEC expects the 2020 increase to remain unchanged from this year, at 1.4 million bpd. Non-OECD countries will account for most of this, at 1.05 million bpd while OECD countries will contribute about 900,000 bpd to global demand growth.
Somewhat surprisingly, China will not be the largest driver of new oil demand. That, according to OPEC, will be the rest of Asia, with China’s oil demand growing at a weaker pace than during this year.
The growth in demand for OPEC oil specifically is seen slowing down next year: OPEC has forecast that the total would average 29.3 million bpd in 2020, down by 1.3 million bpd from this year. The daily rate of demand decline is 100,000 bpd more than the cuts OPEC agreed to with its non-OPEC partners in December last year and suggests the deal might have to be extended further than the end of March 2020, which OPEC and its partners agreed on earlier this month.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com