Monday, January 27, 2025

Chevron completes $48 billion Tengiz oil field expansion as Trump pushes OPEC


https://worldoil.com/news/2025/1/24/chevron-completes-48-billion-tengiz-oil-field-expansion-as-trump-pushes-opec/?oly_enc_id=1027J2600390B9V

(Bloomberg) – Chevron Corp. said Friday it completed an expansion at Kazakhstan’s huge Tengiz oil field, which is expected to pump 1 million barrels a day (bpd) by the middle of this year.

The expansion, costing $48 to $49 billion, comes as U.S. President Donald Trump this week said he’ll push the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which include Kazakhstan, to bring down oil prices.

“For OPEC, we’re going to follow whatever guidance the Republic of Kazakhstan provides us,” Chevron’s President of International Exploration and Production Clay Neff said in an interview.

Kazakhstan’s oil production plans have put pressure on OPEC+ partners, who have agreed to curtail output for much longer than expected. Central Asia’s largest producer has instead announced plans to raise oil output in 2025.

The work on expanding Tengiz, among the world’s biggest oil fields that represents about 1% of global production, has seen delays and cost overruns. Now, the field will generate $4 billion of free cash flow in 2025 for Chevron and $5 billion in 2026 at oil prices of $60, Neff said.

Most of the lighter-grade oil will go to Europe and Asia, he added. Tengiz currently produces about 700,000 barrels of crude per day.

Chevron “achieving this in January likely bodes well for the company, given the prior delays with the projects” in Kazakhstan, RBC Europe Ltd. analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in a note on Friday.

Tengiz is central to Chevron’s pledge to grow its global production, and the delays have weighed on the company’s stock.

Neff stressed the importance of the Kazakhstan asset in the upstream portfolio. With 1 million boed in 2025, it’s about the same as Chevron’s U.S. Permian Basin output, which is also expected to reach 1 million barrels a day this year

Chevron plans, however, to reduce its capital expenditures by about 10% in the Permian, which covers the region of West Texas and New Mexico.

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Dozens of oil tankers drop anchor after latest US sanctions bite



https://www.reuters.com/world/dozens-oil-tankers-drop-anchor-after-latest-us-sanctions-bite-2025-01-13/

  • Around 10% of the global tanker fleet hit by US sanctions
  • Tanker rates rising as non-sanctioned ships in demand
  • China's Shadong port bans tankers hit by US sanctions - traders
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - At least 65 oil tankers have dropped anchor at multiple locations, including off the coasts of China and Russia, since the United States announced a new sanctions package on Jan. 10, ship tracking data showed on Monday.
Five of those tankers were stationary off Chinese ports and a further seven dropped anchor off Singapore, with others halting near Russia in the Baltic Sea and the Far East, according to Reuters' analysis based on MarineTraffic and LSEG ship tracking data.
The U.S. Treasury on Friday imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, as it targets the revenues Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.
The halt in trading for these tankers adds to further pressure on vessels already hit by previous U.S. sanctions.
These include another 25 oil tankers that were stationary around various locations, including off Iranian ports and also near to the Suez Canal, ship tracking analysis showed on Monday.
Some ports have already acted before the latest measures, adding further strains. Shandong Port Group banned tankers under U.S. sanctions from calling at its ports, traders said last week.
Analysts estimated that around 10% of the global oil tanker fleet was subject to US sanctions.
"The effect of these sanctions should be supportive to the tanker market as vessel supply in the broader fleet shrinks, but the real potential strength would come once other exporters make up for the lost volumes," Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta said in a note on Monday.
Average daily earnings for supertankers jumped over 10% on Monday versus the previous day to around $26,000, according to market estimates.
Some charterers already tried to secure ships on Friday after the sanctions were announced, pointing to the tightening supply of ships.
"Increased demand for exports to India and China from outside Russia will increase non-sanctioned tanker demand," trade analytics platform Kpler said on Monday.

Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Trump answers reporter questions at Mar-a-Lago

Biden Bans New Oil and Gas Drilling in 625 Million Acres of Federal Waters



https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/biden-bans-new-oil-and-gas-drilling-in-625-million-acres-of-federal-waters-5786858

The executive order prohibits offshore drilling in large areas of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

President Joe Biden on Jan. 6 said he is banning new oil and gas drilling in more than 625 million acres of U.S. ocean, including the Atlantic Ocean, off the East Coast, and the Pacific Ocean, off the West Coast.

Biden’s order, issued using authority from the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, also applies to portions of the Northern Bering Sea in Alaska and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the White House said.

The president said that the areas he is withdrawing from fossil fuel use show “relatively minimal potential” that does not justify possible environmental, public health, and economic risks that would come from new leasing and drilling.

“I am taking action to protect the East and West coasts, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea from oil and natural gas drilling and the harm it can cause,” Biden, who is set to leave office on Jan. 20, said in a statement. “My decision reflects what coastal communities, businesses, and beachgoers have known for a long time: that drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs. It is not worth the risks.

“As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren.”

The ban on future oil and natural gas leasing has no expiration date.

A spokeswoman for President-elect Donald Trump said that Biden’s move was “a disgraceful decision“ at odds with the mandate given by the American people to Trump to increase drilling and lower gas prices. She added, ”Rest assured, Joe Biden will fail, and we will drill, baby, drill.”

The American Petroleum Institute, an oil and gas trade association, also panned the move.

“American voters sent a clear message in support of domestic energy development, and yet the current administration is using its final days in office to cement a record of doing everything possible to restrict it,” Mike Sommers, the institute’s president and CEO, said in a statement.

Some environmental advocates hailed Biden’s action.

“This is an epic ocean victory!” said Joseph Gordon, campaign director for the environmental group Oceana.

Gordon thanked Biden “for listening to the voices from coastal communities” that oppose drilling and “contributing to the bipartisan tradition of protecting our coasts.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Monday, January 6, 2025

Gov. Hochul Signs Legislation To Further Protect, Restore Environment




Governor Kathy Hochul has signed legislation to further protect and restore the environment.

One bill signed requires large fossil fuel companies to pay for critical projects that protect New Yorkers. The legislation creates a ‘Climate Superfund’ to support New York-based projects that bolster New York’s resiliency to dangerous climate impacts like flooding and extreme heat. This landmark legislation shifts the cost of climate adaptation to the fossil fuel companies most responsible for the pollution.

The Climate Change Adaptation Cost Recovery Program law ensures that these companies contribute to the funding of critical infrastructure investments, such as coastal protection and flood mitigation systems, to enhance the climate resilience of communities across the state.

Another climate law signed by Hochul expands upon New York State’s 2014 prohibition of high-volume hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas. The legislation amends the State Environmental Conservation Law to prohibit the use of carbon dioxide in gas or oil extraction to prevent potential negative health or environmental effects from carbon dioxide fracking in the state.

Goldman pushes back $3,000 gold forecast on fewer US rate cuts


https://www.mining.com/web/goldman-pushes-back-3000-gold-forecast-on-fewer-us-rate-cuts/?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it no longer sees gold reaching $3,000 an ounce by the end of the year, pushing the forecast to mid-2026 on expectations the Federal Reserve will make fewer rate cuts.

Slower monetary easing in 2025 is set to crimp demand for bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, causing analysts including Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven to project prices will hit $2,910 an ounce by year-end. Weaker-than-expected ETF flows in December — driven by easing uncertainty after the US election — also contributed to a lower starting point for pricing into the new year, they wrote in a note.

“Opposing forces — lower speculative demand and structurally higher central bank buying — have effectively offset each other, keeping gold prices range-bound over the past few months,” the analysts said, adding that central banks’ appetite will remain a key driver for prices in the longer-term. “Looking ahead, we forecast monthly purchases to average 38 tons through mid-2026.”

The precious metal surged 27% last year in a record-breaking run that was supported by monetary easing in the US, safe-haven demand, and sustained buying by the world’s central banks. The rally stalled in early November, however, as Donald Trump’s US election victory buoyed the dollar. More recently, gold has been under pressure as Fed officials have emphasized the need to take a more cautious approach to reducing borrowing costs this year amid renewed concerns about inflation.

Goldman’s economists now expect 75 basis points of interest rate cuts this year, down from a previous outlook of 100 basis points. The forecast is more dovish than current market pricing, as the bank sees underlying inflation trending lower. The economists also expressed skepticism that likely policy changes under the second Trump administration will lead to higher interest rates.

(By Sybilla Gross)

Thursday, January 2, 2025

China’s 2025 iron ore imports set to hit new high even as steel demand dwindles


https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-2025-iron-ore-imports-set-to-hit-new-high-even-as-steel-demand-dwindles/?

China’s iron ore imports are likely to hit a new high in 2025 as traders stockpile cheap ore for the world’s top consumer despite a protracted property crisis continuing to weigh on Chinese steel demand, traders and analysts said.

The country’s imports of the key steelmaking ingredient will likely rise by between 10 million and 40 million metric tons to up to 1.27 billion tons this year, up from what forecasters expect to be record volumes in 2024, seven analysts and two traders said in a Reuters survey.

Higher imports will mainly be driven by growing supply from major producers including Australia and Brazil, they said, as miners look to sell ore before the giant Simandou iron ore project begins production later this year and floods the market with new supply.

Iron ore prices are expected to fall to between $75 and $120 a ton in 2025, the survey showed, versus $88 to $144 a ton in 2024, according to data from consultancy Steelhome.

“Our base case assumes a moderate surplus in 2025 and prices holding up around $95-100/t,” said Myles Allsop, UBS’ head of EMEA mining.

“We see the surplus getting larger in 2026/27 driving prices deeper into the cost curve.”

Weakness in the steel sector, which consumes the bulk of iron ore, means imports are likely to grow Chinese port stockpiles to up to 170 million tons in 2025, said analysts. Stocks are already up 28.3% on-year to 146.85 million tons as of Dec. 27.