Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Gold Sinks to Seven-Week Low on Yellen Comments

 gold


Gold prices fell on Wednesday, sinking to their lowest level in nearly two months, after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated the U.S. central bank could raise rates at its December meeting.

Ms. Yellen, in testimony of the House Financial Services Committee, said a December rate increase is a “live possibility” so long as economic growth picks up steam, the labor market continues to improve and inflation nudges closer to the Fed’s 2% target.

“Everything she said leads to her assessment of a December rate hike being on the table. and that’s what spooked the gold market,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures in New York. 

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen Photo: jonathan ernst/Reuters
The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, settled down $7.90, or 0.7%, at $1,106.20 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the lowest close since Sep. 15.

Gold prices have lost 6.8% since mid-October as investors recalibrated their expectations of U.S. monetary policy in response to hawkish signals from the Fed. The U.S. central bank surprised many investors by reiterating that a potential shift to higher rates remains on this year’s agenda despite the recent raft of disappointing economic readings. Gold is expected to struggle once rates climb as it doesn’t pay interest and costs money to hold.
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Fed funds futures, used by investors to place bets on central-bank policy, pegged the likelihood of a December rate increase at 60% following Ms. Yellen’s remarks, up from 52% earlier on Wednesday morning, data from CME Group show.

“A 60% chance of a December hike has been a large headwind for gold,” Mr. Gero said.

Gold traders now turn their attention to the U.S. employment report, due out on Friday, for fresh insights into U.S. labor market health. The report is closely followed by investors because it is a key input into the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

“Gold is on its tiptoes right now, any indication of a rate increase or a (delay) would send waves through this market,” said Bob Haberkorn, a senior commodities broker with RJO Futures in Chicago. 

Still, if the jobs report were to fall short of expectations, “it would put weight in the corner that there’s no Fed rate increase coming this year,” Mr. Haberkorn said. 

Write to Tatyana Shumsky at tatyana.shumsky@wsj.com

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

U.S. oil refiners look abroad for crude supplies as North Dakota boom fades

Gasoline-making unit at a PBF Energy Inc refinery in Delaware City, Delaware August 21, 2015.  REUTERS/Charles Mostoller - RTX1P4UV

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-refineries-east-coast-bakken-idUSKCN0SS1TC20151103#4U2UCdDgKbBJCj4j.97
 
Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-refineries-east-coast-bakken-idUSKCN0SS1TC20151103#8MsvSrbCKKg4J75E.99

PBF Energy Inc, one of the largest independent oil refiners in the United States, spent heavily in recent years to build the rail terminals at its Delaware City complex that it needed to take delivery of large loads of crude coming from North Dakota's Bakken oil fields.

But now it is considering eliminating those deliveries altogether, and replacing them with foreign crude imports, according to two sources familiar with the situation. It has even closed its small Oklahoma City office that was only opened in 2013 and had served as a hub for the company's trading in North Dakota's oil, the sources said.

The sudden lack of interest in Bakken crude by PBF, which is run by Thomas O'Malley, one of the biggest names in the U.S. oil refining industry, reflects a dramatic recent change in the way East Coast refineries are sourcing the crude that they turn into everything from gasoline to heating oil and jet fuel.

The boom in the output of oil from North Dakota's shale has ebbed as producers have begun to cut back in the face of the plunge in prices by nearly 60 percent since the summer of 2014.

North Dakota's Bakken production peaked at 1.153 million barrels per day in June, and had fallen to 1.13 million barrels per day by August, according to state data.

The supply restraint has made Bakken crude relatively more expensive after transport costs than oil shipped from Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, prompting East Coast refiners to return to a foreign crude diet they derided as unprofitable five years ago.

Three companies that resuscitated failing oil refineries on the East Coast less than five years ago with the promise of cheap domestic oil are now looking overseas instead, four sources familiar with the plans told Reuters.

Together, PBF, Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc and Delta Airline's Monroe Energy are expected to cut their Bakken crude intake to the lowest levels since 2013, according to two oil traders who are familiar with East Coast rail arrangements.

PES, which bought a 335,000 barrel-a-day Philadelphia refinery that was slated for closure in 2012, has slashed its Bakken deliveries to just 17 trains in November from a peak of 100 trains a month during the summer, according to two sources familiar with the plant's operations.

The planned deliveries mark the lowest monthly volume since the company built a new rail terminal to take advantage of the Bakken revolution. EIA data shows PES imported more than double the amount between January and July, with cargoes from Nigeria, Chad and Azerbaijan.

LOCKED INTO PAYING

The price of Bakken hasn't fallen as much as other oil, nearly wiping out the entire $6 a barrel discount to the U.S. benchmark that it traded at in January and sending refiners scrambling for other sources. Meanwhile, a glut of other crudes has made importing - including transport costs of $2 to $3 a barrel - much more attractive.

Because bringing crude by rail from North Dakota to an East Coast refinery usually costs about $10 to $11 a barrel, without a deep discount for the oil, moving it across the country becomes unprofitable. As a result, Bakken crude is used in the U.S. Midwest and Canada where lower transportation costs make it a profitable option.

East Coast refineries accounted for about 10 percent of nationwide imports of crude in July, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That is expected to rise as the Bakken shipments fall further, analysts and traders say.

PBF had poured over $50 million into upgrading its Delaware City rail terminal and signed long-term volume commitments to unload at least 85,000 barrels per day from trains at a fixed $2 a barrel cost, regardless of whether it takes the oil. As a result, the company is locked into paying $170,000 a day.

In a conference call late last week, PBF disclosed that it is only budgeting to take 25,000 barrels a day of Bakken oil delivered by rail at its East Coast refineries in 2016.

The company's spokesman Michael Karlovich said in an email that the company was transferring its single employee in the Oklahoma office to its headquarters in New Jersey, but declined to provide additional detail about the company's Bakken strategy.

PBF's Delaware City refinery imported about twice as much crude in July as in January, bringing in cargoes from Colombia and Peru, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The company's Paulsboro, New Jersey, refinery increased its imports by 50 percent in the same period.

PES declined to comment on the shifting crude slate, while Monroe Energy did not respond to requests for comment.

The refiners had previously found that relying on crude from the likes of Colombia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia was unprofitable. But now it may be different provided Bakken crude remains relatively expensive and the U.S. economy doesn't head into a downturn.

That's because the refiners are buoyed by increased U.S. fuel demand, partly because of the low oil prices. In 2010, demand was shrinking.

Additionally, they are supported by the closure of underperforming refineries in the Atlantic Basin during the last downturn. And then there is the current availability of deeply discounted crude oil from overseas.

"They are looking for the lowest cost supplies," said Sandy Fielden, an analyst with RBN Energy. "A few years ago, that was North Dakota, but not today."

(Reporting By Jarrett Renshaw and Catherine Ngai; Editing by Jessica Resnick-Ault and Martin Howell)

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-refineries-east-coast-bakken-idUSKCN0SS1TC20151103#8MsvSrbCKKg4J75E.99






Monday, November 2, 2015

Jonathan’s campaign chief, others divert N155bn crude oil money to ‘corrupt Zambian officials’

 goodluck-nimi


PREMIUM TIMES has uncovered one of the most fraudulent crude oil deals executed by the Goodluck Jonathan administration, which saw a campaign official and some other suspected cronies of the ex-president smiling to the banks with up to 50 per cent commission from the proceeds of a foreign crude oil lifting contract, turning them into instant billionaires.

In the middle of the shady deal is a Nigerian oil and gas company, Sarb Energy, which acted as a dodgy middleman in a non-transparent government-to-government crude oil sale between the Nigerian and the Zambian governments.

Sarb Energy, incorporated on September 19, 2008, was specifically established for the controversial deal.

This newspaper has established that Sarb Energy has link with at least one political associate of former President Jonathan, whose five-year reign as leader of Africa’s largest oil producer was characterized by allegations of massive corruption, especially in the oil and gas sector.

The company’s directors at inception, according to records at the Corporate Affairs Commission, were Nimi Barigha-Amange, a former Peoples Democratic Party’s senator from Bayelsa (2007-2011), who also served as director of planning, research and strategy for Mr. Jonathan’s re-election campaign in 2014; Sylva Ogbogu, a retired Brigadier General; Akpan Ekpene, the managing director of the company, who executed the deal; and Ogba Properties and Investment Company Limited, a company whose real ownership remained unclear.

For months, PREMIUM TIMES was unable to obtain its records at the CAC.

Sarb Energy corporate ownership structure

SARB Corporate Structure
Mr. Barigha-Amange was a director in Deltoil Nigeria and Pixy Energy, two other companies with stakes in Sarb Energy.

The crude oil deal

In a testimony he gave at a Zambian court, Mr. Ekpene said he sold the idea of the government-to-government crude oil deal to the Zambian government in 2008, which then gave his company, Sarb, a power of attorney to execute the contract on its behalf.

Under the deal signed with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, the Zambian government was to lift eight million barrels of crude oil worth N155.4 billion ($969.6million).

After the deal was sealed on April 20, 2011, Sarb made an initial deposit of $2.5million to the NNPC in the name of the Zambian government.

Rather than Sarb importing the crude for use of the Zambian government at home, it was agreed that the company would sell the commodity to other traders, split profit 50-50 with the government and then remit the Zambian government’s share to official administration accounts.

But that didn’t happen. What indeed happened was that the Nigerians sold the crude and failed to make payments into Zambian government accounts.

Instead, according to Mr. Ekpene, parts of the proceeds were diverted into an account held by Iexoria, a Singapore-based company allegedly controlled by Henry Banda, the Zambian president’s son.

No evidence has emerged till date indicating that Zambia received any revenue from the deal.

The deal sparked controversy in Zambia, with former President Rupiah Banda charged with multiple violations of that country’s anti-corruption laws.

In his testimony during the trial, Mr. Ekpene claimed the proceeds of the deal were passed directly to Mr. Banda and his family.

The Sarb managing director told the court that his company made two wire transfers worth $550,000 from its Access Bank account in Nigeria to a Barclays Bank account in Singapore owned by Iexoria.
Henry Banda, the Zambian president’s son, controlled Iexoria. Both transfers were made before that country’s September 2011 general elections, when Mr. Banda was still president.

A fake consultancy contract was then drawn up between Sarb and Iexoria to support the payments, stating that Iexoria was supposed to carry out a feasibility study for a power plant.

Mr. Ekpene admitted in court the contract was a ruse as no such feasibility study was done. He said that approach was adopted to deceive Access Bank into authorizing the transfers.

He claimed that he also gave Mr. Banda $500,000 through his son Henry, to boost his election campaign. He said that was after Mr. Banda requested $1 million advance payment from the government-to-government oil deal.

Mr. Ekpene also told the court that he helped Banda with campaign materials, which he transported from Nigeria to Zambia, during a trip in which he admitted concealing $260, 000 cash in his luggage.
He said he handed over the cash to Banda at the Government House for his use in the 2008 campaigns.

He said he made the donation to President Banda because the intermediary in the crude lifting deal, Major Richard Kachingwe, allegedly insisted that they needed to support him to win reelection.
Mr. Ekpene may have, however, lied under oath in court during the Banda trial when he said only 5.7 million barrels of crude were shipped out of Nigeria in the deal, with the last cargo loading in December 2012.

PREMIUM TIMES found, from NNPC and Finance Ministry records, that 11 cargoes, carrying more than eight million barrels, were lifted in respect of the deal.

Insiders say Sarb Energy continued to lift from the NNPC even when the Zambian authorities believed the deal had ended.

The Magistrate’s Court in Lusaka, the Zambian capital, however acquitted Mr. Banda in June 2015, saying the prosecution failed to prove its case that the former leader violated Section 99(1) of the Zambian Penal Code.

No progress with investigation in Nigeria

Even though Sarb and its official, Mr. Ekpene, made startling confessions in court in Zambia, including admitting laundering funds out of the country, it does not appear investigation is making progress in Nigeria.

Mr. Ekpene claimed in court that Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission looked into the contract in May 2013.

But no enforcement action has so far been taken.

The spokesperson for the EFCC, Wilson Uwujaren, said he was not aware that any such investigation was ongoing. He promised to crosscheck with the agency’s investigators and then revert to PREMIUM TIMES.

The spokesperson for the NNPC, Ohi Alegbe, could not be reached Monday.

When contacted by PREMIUM TIMES, Mr. Barigha-Amange, the PDP politician, directed all enquiries on the matter to Mr. Ekpene, the managing director of the company.

“I don’t know much about this matter,” the former senator said. “Only the MD can talk about it.”
Mr. Ekpene however declined to comment. He did not answer or return calls. He also did not respond to an email sent to him more than a month ago.

Below is a record of the crude oil liftings in the deal, as shown by market intelligence data.

Friday, October 30, 2015

Markets - Iran on the way back

  iran 

Over the past few months, further progress has been made on the lifting of Iranian sanctions in terms of legislation. 
 
For example, first, the US Congress failed to block the Iran nuclear deal reached in summer 2015 and second, the same deal has been approved by the Iranian parliament, London broking house Gibson said in a report

On 18th October, US authorities approved conditional sanctions waivers for Iran (known as Adoption Day). These waivers will only take effect after Iran complies with its commitments and this is verified by the IAEA (Implementation Day).

According to several senior US officials, the Implementation Day is at the very least two months away; while most industry experts are of the opinion that this is unlikely to happen before the first quarter of next year, Gibson said.

If and when Iranian sanctions are lifted, it will have important implications for global oil markets.

At present, the world is awash with crude, following OPEC’s policy to defend its market share, while at the same time, US crude oil production is not falling fast enough to balance supply and demand, despite prices remaining low. Finally, concerns are growing about the health of world economy, leading to lower expectations for global oil demand growth next year.

In these circumstances, if Iran is able to rapidly increase its production and exports, this will only add more crude to an already heavily oversupplied market, Gibson warned.

Undoubtedly, this year the overhang of crude oil has fuelled tanker markets not only in terms of supporting trade, but also leading to additional storage requirements and loading/discharge delays. Any increase in Iranian exports will at the very least increasingly support a tight supply/demand balance.

However, there are also concerns about the Iranian fleet, which will become internationally operational and is likely to compete aggressively in the conventional tanker market when sanctions are lifted.

Today, some 37 VLCCs, nine Suezmaxes and five Aframaxes are under control of the National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC). However, about half of this fleet is already employed, largely shipping Iranian crude to a limited number of international buyers - although there is some scope here for efficiency gains, such as faster speeds and reduced waiting time.

The rest of NITC’s fleet is used for crude/condensate storage, with the latest count at 20 units under its control and five by other owners, Gibson said.

If the nuclear dispute is resolved, a number of VLCCs used for storage will continue for operational/marketing reasons, as was the case prior to sanctions. Only those tankers which will be released from storage duties will be in position to provide an incremental boost to tanker supply.

It could take some time for these ships to meet international standards in terms of class and insurance. Furthermore, many units are likely to require drydocking. On this basis, the process of ‘re-entry’ will be gradual.

Finally, if Iran succeeds in rapidly increasing its production and in significant volumes, this would provide additional demand for the NITC fleet, limiting further the threat of competition to the international tanker supply, Gibson concluded.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

NNPC offers 26 Nigerian crude oil grades for sale

 Dr. Ibe Kachikwu
 
 
The News Agency of Nigeria recalls that NNPC had conducted public opening of bids submitted by 278 national and international companies competing to secure Nigerian crude oil grades
 
The Nigerian National Corporation says it has 26 crude oil grades to offer for sale to companies that would eventually win the bidding contracts for the sale of Nigeria oil grades.
 
The corporation gave this indication in a statement issued in Abuja on Wednesday, signed by its Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division, Ohi Alegbe
 
The News Agency of Nigeria recalls that NNPC had conducted public opening of bids submitted by 278 national and international companies competing to secure Nigerian crude oil grades.
 
The public bid process, which was conducted By NNPC officials, was witnessed by representatives of the bidding companies as well as officials of the Bureau of Public Procurement and the Department of Petroleum Resources.
 
Others are Nigerian Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, as well as members of the civil society attending as independent assessors.
 
The contract for the engagement of qualified and reputable companies for the sale and purchase of Nigerian Crude Oil grades is in pursuance of the provisions of the Public Procurement Act 2007 and the BPP guidelines.
 
The statement quoted the Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, as saying the essence of the public opening of the bid was to consolidate on the new promise of transparency and efficiency in line with President Mohammadu Buhari’s agenda for the oil and gas industry.
 
Kachikwu said: “The essence is to ensure that nobody needs to call me personally as Ibe Kachikwu for him to get crude allocation.
 
“So you can imagine the burden it takes off my shoulders.
 
“It means a good amount of my time will now go into other relevant areas of operation where the country needs me most.”
 
According to the statement, the 26 grades Nigerian crude oil on offer include Bonny Light, Forcados Blend, EA Blend, Bonga, Qua Iboe Light, Yoho Blend, Erha and Escravos Light.
 
Others are Pennington Light, Agbami, Brass Blend, Abo, Oyo, Okono Blend, Amenam Blend, Akpo Condensate and Usan.
 
The rest include Atam Blend, Okwori, Okoro, Ima, Ukpokiti, Obe, Okwuibome, Ebok and Asaratoru.
The statement said part of the requirements for interested companies included the possession of a minimum annual turnover of $750 million and net worth of at least $300 million in asset.
 
It said the companies were to also establish an irrevocable letter of credit for the payment of any allocated crude oil, subject to the contract terms.
 
It also gave as a condition that the companies must possess the ability to pay an initial deposit of $2.5 million, representing the first lifting deposit, upon signing of the contract agreement, among other requirements.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

New York petroleum storage could reach capacity

USA, New York City, Oil storage tanks in refinery with Manhattan skyline in background : Stock Photo


Petroleum storage inventories at New York Harbour could reach capacity constraints by November.

According to Genscape data, inventories reached a record high above 19 million barrels after stocks swelled more than three million barrels the week ending October 2.

These increases are expected to continue due to falling RBOB petroleum prices and declining demand during the autumn, following the end of peak driving season.

Genscape estimates that as of October 16, there was more than eight million barrels of vacant petroleum storage capacity to accommodate increased inventories at the harbour.

Assuming that maximum operating capacity for petroleum storage is similar to that of other terminals monitored by Genscape, capacity constraints could surface within a month.

Genscape has recorded storage terminals operating at capacity utilisation rates that are above 80%.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Global VLCC Tracker: North Asia, West African flows slump in September

CMES, Sinotrans & CSC to form VLCC joint venture


* Turnarounds, delays knock North Asian landings to one-year low
* Slack in Chinese demand for Angolan crude picked up by Europe, US
* West African sailings tumble to lowest in 15 months


VLCC landings in North Asia during September fell to their lowest level in a year as refinery turnarounds, ullage problems, weak refining margins, and typhoon-related delays dampened demand, cFlow, Platts trade flow software, showed.

High regional inventories combined with rising freight rates also compounded the wider trend and helped drive West African sailings to 15-month lows.

Arrivals into North Asia, the key VLCC landing region, slipped to 161 over the month, down from 171 in August and last lower in September 2014, while sailings from West Africa -- at 24, a drop of six -- were at lows not seen since June 2014.

VLCCs haul the bulk of global crude oil shipments, with a small number of tankers also carrying fuel oil, but mainly on a few routes, such as from Rotterdam to Singapore.

In China, low margins, and high product inventories weighed on VLCC inflows -- particularly from Angola -- which dropped to 82 ships, falling by three to the lowest level since May.

Japan's arrivals fell to 41, down by three, while South Korea's inflows rose to 35 from 34 against landings in Taiwan that were flat on the month at 12.

Based on direct VLCC voyages to China, the top five suppliers in September were Saudi Arabia, Angola, Kuwait, Oman and Iran, while over the first nine months of this year, the top five were Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, Oman and Iran.

However, as up to a third of vessels tend to co-load -- or pick up cargoes from more than one port -- several of these ships loaded a range of other crude oils prior to departing their respective regions.

From Saudi Arabia, 14 ships arrived in China and arriving from Singapore were eight vessels, as well as two from Japan, originally loaded in Saudi Arabia, and two from South Korea, carrying cargoes from Qatar and Kuwait.

Angola sent nine tankers to China, marking a five-month low, as softer margins and run cuts of 10-15% announced for October dented Chinese refinery demand.

The West African producer's crude is heavily dependent on China, which typically takes 40-60% of its exports every month, and Unipec, the trading arm of Chines state-owned Sinopec, is the largest buyer of Angolan crude, often taking 35-40% of the monthly export program.

ALTERNATIVE BUYERS

With Angolan sailings to China in a downtrend recently, European -- largely Portuguese and Spanish -- and US buyers have been stepping in, with European refineries having increased buying, stimulated by strong margins.

In the US, Gulf Coast refineries increased demand for Angola's heavier grades such as Dalia and Saturno to be used for blending.

However, these trans-Atlantic exports were shipped entirely on Suezmaxes, with VLCC flows between Angola and the US at standstill since September 2014, a product of the boom in US tight oil.

While only around 20% of Middle Eastern exports are routinely shipped on Suezmaxes, the volume in West Africa is significantly higher, at roughly 70%, with most of the Suezmax flows bound for European markets.

An estimated 10-15% of daily global oil shipments are also sent on Aframaxes, but these voyages are largely limited to intra-regional movements in parts of Europe and Southeast Asia.

MIDDLE EAST, WIDER WAF SAILINGS

Saudi sailings in September, albeit up by one from August to 119, still hovered at levels last lower in February. From the UAE, 42 tankers sailed, up from 38, while from Iraq's Basrah, 33 ships left, a drop of two. Departures from Iran eased to 18 from 19.

The bulk of Saudi sailings went to South Korea, Japan, the US, Egypt and China, with the exports to Egypt nearly all bound for Europe, as Egypt's Sumed Pipeline -- running from Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna to the Mediterranean's Sidi Kerir terminal -- acts as a key trans-shipment route between Europe and its Gulf suppliers.

The UAE-sailings top destinations were Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, while China, Egypt, Singapore, India and South Korea were the top landings countries for Iraq's tanker flows.

In Iranian departures, the bulk of ships -- excluding those that went to co-load -- sailed for China, South Korea, India and Japan.

Volumes leaving West Africa stumbled to their weakest levels in 15-months, with 24 VLCCs heading out of the region.

Angolan sailings dropped to their lowest count in six months, at 14, while the number of ships departing Nigeria eased to six, last lower in June.

In addition to weaker Chinese buying appetite, the uptrend in freight rates also curtailed demand for Angolan crudes across several regions.

MONTHLY AVERAGE FREIGHT RATES

September saw freight rates pressured to the upside along key VLCC routes, largely driven by a reduction in tonnage stemming from weather-related delays and ullage problems in Asia.

Further support for rates came from a major increase in charterer demand, with a particularly heavy Basrah loading program restricting the number of potential eastern ballasters to West Africa.

Along benchmark VLCC routes, monthly average rates from PG-Japan topped Worldscale 53.31, up 40% from August, while PG-China rates jumped to w52.81, marking the same monthly percentage increase, according to Platts assessments.

From West Africa to the Far East, rates jumped to w54.83, an increase of 18% on the month prior.

Elsewhere, from the Persian Gulf to west coast India rates rose to w65.18, up 36% from the previous month.
Global VLCC Fleet: Monthly Flows
Landings
Region/countrySep-15Aug-15Change
Total N Asia161171-10
China8285-3
Japan4144-3
South Korea35341
Taiwan12120

Sailings
Region/countrySep-15Aug-15Change
Saudi Arabia1191181
UAE42384
Iraq (Basrah)3335-2
Total W Africa2430-6
Iran1819-1
Angola14151
Nigeria68-2

--Sierra Highcloud, sierra.highcloud@platts.com
--Edited by Dan Lalor, daniel.lalor@platts.com