Friday, December 17, 2010

OPEC expects increased global oil consumption in 2011

A.Badalova /

OPEC forecasts an increase in the global oil consumption by 1.2 million bpd to 87.11 million bpd in 2011.

According to OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, the highest level of demand in 2011 will occur in the fourth quarter at 88.29 million bpd.

Of the total oil consumption, 46 million bpd will fall to OECD. In countries outside the organization, oil consumption will increase in 2011 by one million bpd compared to 2010.

OPEC forecasts that oil demand in China will grow by 0.45 million bpd to 9.26 million bpd.

OPEC expects world oil demand at 85.93 million bpd in 2010, which is more by 1.47 million bpd compared to 2009. Oil demand in OECD countries will make 45.84 million bpd.

World oil supplies

The volume of world oil supplies rose in November to 0.13 million bpd to 87.16 million bpd.

Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries increased by 0.18 million bpd in November, while OPEC's oil production fell by 43,000 bpd.

OPEC's share in total world oil supplies remained unchanged last month - at 34 percent.

Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries

OPEC raised its oil supply forecasts by non-OPEC countries by 0.41 million bpd to 52.62 million bpd.

OPEC expects a drop in the oil supplies of by non-OPEC countries in the second and third quarters of next year to 52.46 and 52.39 million bpd, respectively, and increase in the fourth to 52.99 million bpd. The growth of supply will occur, mainly due to Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Colombia. Norway, Britain and Mexico will experience a drop in supplies.

OECD countries will supply 19.73 million bpd and the former Soviet Union will supply 13.43 million bpd in 2011.

In 2010, OPEC forecasts an increase in oil supplies by non-OPEC countries by 1.09 million bpd to 52.21 million bpd. In the fourth quarter, shipments of these countries will amount to 52.74 million bpd compared to 51.91 million in the third quarter.

OECD countries' supply this year is projected to hit 19.86 million bpd and the former Soviet Union - 13.25 million bpd.

Global economy

In 2010, OPEC expects world economic growth at 4.3 percent and at 3.8 percent in 2011. The U.S. economy will increase by 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year. Economic growth in OECD countries in 2010 and 2011 will amount to 2.6 and 2 percent, respectively. In the euro area OPEC forecasts economic growth at 1.5 percent this year and 1.1 percent - next year.

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